IRENA's Caribbean Outlook 2026: Key Figures for Antigua

The Cost Comparison That Should End the Debate

IRENA's 2026 LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) analysis puts utility-scale solar PV in the Caribbean at USD$0.041/kWh — including all capital costs, financing, operations and maintenance, and insurance over a 25-year project life. For context, that's approximately EC$0.111/kWh. Against this, IRENA reports the average LCOE of diesel generation in the Caribbean at USD$0.18/kWh — EC$0.486/kWh — driven almost entirely by fuel costs. Solar is 4.4 times cheaper than diesel at the utility scale in Antigua's region.

This cost gap has widened dramatically over the past decade. In 2015, utility-scale solar LCOE in the Caribbean was approximately USD$0.14/kWh — comparable to diesel at the time. Panel prices have fallen more than 90% since then, while diesel costs have remained volatile and elevated. The implication is that every year of delay in building utility-scale solar in Antigua represents an increasingly expensive choice, not a neutral one. The opportunity cost of delay is measurable and significant.

Antigua's Technical Solar Potential

IRENA's GIS analysis of Antigua estimates a total technical solar PV potential of 210 megawatts. This figure represents the installed capacity achievable using suitable land (accounting for protected areas, steep terrain, and urban density constraints) and available rooftop area. To be clear: this is not the practical or economic potential, which would be lower due to grid integration constraints; it's the upper bound of what the physical geography of the island could support. Antigua's peak demand is approximately 80MW, meaning the island has sufficient land and roof area to generate more than twice its peak demand needs from solar alone — well before considering storage.

The 210MW figure should be read alongside the current 2.4MW installed: Antigua has utilized approximately 1.1% of its technical solar potential. For comparison, IRENA reports that Barbados has utilized approximately 28% of its technical potential, and Germany — the world's benchmark solar market — has utilized approximately 22%. Even achieving 10% utilization in Antigua (approximately 21MW of solar) would transform the island's electricity economics, reducing diesel consumption by an estimated 60% and cutting consumer electricity costs by 30-40%.

The Policy Gap: From Potential to Reality

IRENA's report is explicit about the obstacle: for Antigua specifically, the report identifies "policy and regulatory uncertainty" as the primary barrier to investment, ahead of financing costs or technical constraints. Specifically, the absence of enacted net metering regulations, the lack of a utility-scale solar procurement track record, and the uncertainty around APUA's interconnection process combine to make Antigua a higher-risk investment destination than its solar resource quality would warrant.

IRENA's policy recommendations for Antigua are direct: enact net metering regulations immediately (even with initially conservative system size limits, which can be raised as operational experience accumulates), complete a single utility-scale solar procurement to establish a track record with international investors, and establish an independent energy regulator with technical capacity. These are not revolutionary recommendations — they are the same steps taken by every Caribbean jurisdiction that has made significant progress on renewable energy. The recipe is known; the question is whether the political will exists to follow it.